Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 4.227421 4.700801 5.274818 6.047891 7.110118 8.612425 11.140801
2025-01-05 3.529730 4.049246 4.728696 5.743885 7.372119 10.320126 18.486796
2025-01-12 3.123701 3.636708 4.332947 5.431878 7.363499 11.541622 32.559458
2025-01-19 2.881470 3.393545 4.109321 5.292071 7.550705 13.460682 238.600023
2025-01-26 2.781916 3.326166 4.117587 5.512734 8.543294 20.186614 NaN
2025-02-02 2.732068 3.318599 4.208469 5.897823 10.242906 51.848369 NaN
2025-02-09 2.627389 3.217683 4.133588 5.945789 11.133670 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 2.543966 3.139650 4.083965 6.030734 12.301890 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.415141 2.982378 3.883047 5.745703 11.803884 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.347593 2.914703 3.829009 5.777987 12.762577 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.279815 2.841796 3.758095 5.756603 13.513578 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.199389 2.744371 3.635570 5.591155 13.351601 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.170102 2.728925 3.663406 5.813119 16.136141 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.081801 2.614850 3.503241 5.532190 14.972443 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.998193 2.505198 3.345682 5.243459 13.660540 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.939582 2.433397 3.253653 5.113636 13.509380 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.925295 2.431707 3.289423 5.318414 16.434171 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.925990 2.453985 3.371663 5.674124 23.581552 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.894569 2.421571 3.346186 5.718283 27.646461 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.868183 2.396228 3.332480 5.796406 34.869863 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.813000 2.320646 3.215145 5.533861 29.032965 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.786717 2.292768 3.191245 5.563656 34.612652 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.757614 2.259026 3.153572 5.543922 39.389063 NaN NaN